All day I’ve had stories cross my RSS Reader about last night’s GOP candidates’ debate in South Carolina and just about every one of them could be headlined “Herman Cain Mysteriously Wins Debate With Mysterious Powers of Mystery. Also, He Can’t Win Anything.” With each story, I’ve gotten more and more irritated at how quickly the authors, who were usually well-established and professional political pundits, threw up their hands and declared utter bafflement at Cain’s performance. What irritated me the most is how so little time any of them spent looking into why Cain did so well and why he wowed a Fox News post-debate focus group.John Guardiano wrote perhaps the most succinct illustration of what irritated me so in the American Spectator.
Herman Cain seemed to strike a chord with Frank Luntz’s voter focus group, though I’m not sure how or why. Cain did articulate faithful conservative positions; and he has a certain folksy, down-home appeal. That he’s a retired businessman and entrepreneur, and not a career politician, also adds to his electoral allure.Let me take this apart piece by piece, starting with the first sentence. Guardiano’s use of the weasel word “seemed” is flat-out disingenuous. Cain didn’t “seem” to score big with the focus group. He did. Take a look at the video. Watch the hands rocket skyward when Luntz asks them who thought Cain won the debate. Listen to the glowing and crisp complements — almost 2 minutes worth of them.
Better yet, read Guardiano’s own words. They echo nearly every complement given to him by those folks in the focus group. And yet he’s completely flummoxed?
I call shenanegans. Any author worth their salt would have at least acknowledged the focus group’s reactions. A truly good writer would have spent a few moments trying to put themselves in the head of one of those folks. Who doesn’t show at least some interest in solving
Guardino is but one of many – several of whom Stacy McCain soundly thrashes in this post — professional commentators who simply can’t get past their own insulated worldviews to see what is plainly true. There’s no mystery to Cain’s appeal. Stacy quoted Cain’s communications director Ellen Carmichael whose explanation is just about perfect: “When people meet Herman, they like Herman.”
You don’t have to accept her word for it, though. I have data.
Gallup has held a running poll of something they call “Positive Intensity” that measures how strongly people like a candidate they know about. A counterpart to name recognition, positive intensity measures how likely it is people will like a candidate once they become familiar with them. In the three polls where Gallup has included Cain’s name, going back to mid-March, he has consistently placed in the top 5. He’s beaten such candidates seen by the professional punditocracy as “serious” candidates as Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, and Haley Barbour (before he dropped out). He’s been running neck and neck with Mitt Romney, the guy the pros would simply anoint to the nomination if only they could get past all us pesky voters.
But if that doesn’t convince you, listen to Stacy McCain. He has seen Cain operate on the ground more often than I have. He’s seen first-hand how strongly Cain connects with audiences time and time again. That’s why he believes Cain is a legitimate contender for the nomination. Now I don’t know how often Guardiano has seen Cain at work. I suspect he’s not gotten outside his own DC world see one of Cain’t many public appearances — 15 times in the past three weeks in New Hampshire and elsewhere. He might have seen Cain speak at CPAC where he lit up the crowd like it was a gasoline-soaked haystack, but if he did, he’s forgotten the visceral connection Cain made with a packed hall that day.
Guardiano and the rest of the Beltway commentariat considers Herman Cain’s appeal an ineffable mystery. I don’t. I can read the polls. I can see how people react to him. Herman Cain is a presidential candidate, not the Continuum Transfunctioner. All I had to do to see that was get out of my own safe bubble and look. If the John Guardianos of the world can’t manage to do that soon, no one could blame us for asking how much of their stupefaction is honest and how much is intentional.
UPDATE: In a related story, it’s probably a mystery how Cain’s team manages to play the political game pretty well too. Who can know how they do it?
Posted by Jimmie
