Damien McElroy in Cairo, reporting for the UK Telegraph, has the following observations:
The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s largest Islamic movement and the founder of Hamas, has set up a network of political parties around the country that eclipse the following of the middle class activists that overthrew the regime. On the extreme fringe of the Brotherhood, Islamic groups linked to al-Qeada are organising from the mosques to fill the vacuum left by the collapse of the dictatorship.
The military-led government already faces accusations that it is bowing to the surge in support for the Muslim movements, something that David Cameron warned of in February when he said Egyptian democracy would be strongly Islamic.{feigned surprise} Oh, my, who’d have thought that could happen? Only the terminally naïve or those with no understanding of the area or human nature would have figured otherwise.
Power vacuums produce opportunities for others to fill them. The US helped create that vacuum by insisting Hosni Mubarak must step down.
Usually, as we’ve mentioned here any number of times, the most organized and ruthless succeed in filling such power vacuums. And that’s precisely the case in Egypt where Islam in general is as pervasive as the air breathed there and the Muslim Brotherhood, while never allowed to be in power previously, was the most organized of the groups with the potential to fill the power vacuum.
And that is coming to fruition. Not just in an Islamic sense, but in an Islamist sense as well. The Muslim factions are poised to take over and control any government voted in by the public and do it in a big way:
Mohammed Badie, the Muslim Brotherhood’s spiritual leader, last week predicted the group’s candidates would win 75 per cent of the seats it contested.
Fundamentalist factions have also emerged as parties. Gamaa al-Islamiya, an al-Qaeda linked group that promotes Salafist traditions has used its mosques as a political base for the first time since the 1970s.Egypt attempted in the past – however oppressive that effort was – to keep a largely secular government, at least by Middle Eastern standards. And that was to our benefit and certainly to the benefit of the region. It produced the peace treaty with Israel and ushered in a few decades of relatively peaceful times in the Middle East. That’s pretty much likely to go by the wayside soon. This next government will be steeped in Islam if not a good measure of Islamism. That has been ordained by the first “democratic” vote in Egypt:
A scare campaign that a No vote in last months referendum would eliminate Islamic law from the Egyptian constitution ensured a 77 per cent Yes result.As for those who participated in the April 6th movement and want a more secular and democratic Egypt? Well, again, the best organized is the most likely to succeed, right? And they have little or no organization:
But the April 6th movement that spearheaded protests has no clear plan for party politics. Diplomats have warned the demonstrators are not well prepared for elections.
"The leadership of the protests was so focused on the street-by-street detail of the revolution, they have no clue what to do in a national election," said a US official involved in the demonstrations. "Now at dinner the protesters can tell me every Cairo street that was important in the revolution but not how they will take power in Egypt."Entirely predictable and clearly not in the best interest of the US – which calls into question the administration’s decision not to back Mubarak but call for his ouster. The result is an unintended consequence one assumes – we backed a faction that we knew little about, which has had little impact since and now we’re going to see results that we don’t want and are not in the best interests of the US or peace in the region. The same could be said about Libya.
Finally, don’t be fooled by the “independent” status of Egyptian political candidates for the Presidency there. Their independence is in name only as they must court the factions that are likely to hold power in any legislature that forms.
Although the leading contenders for Egypt’s presidency are independents, many have begun wooing the Muslim blocs. Front-runner Amr Moussa, the Arab League president, has conceded that its inevitable that Islamic factions will be the bedrock of the political system.Of course they will and that means, inevitably, that Egypt will eventually revoke its treaty with Israel thereby setting the peace process back to square one.
Yes, this has been beautifully played by the President and the State Department. If naiveté in foreign affairs was ever more evident than now, I’m having difficulty remembering it (Jimmy Carter is as close as it comes, and they’re making even him look competent).
~McQ
